ECMWF, as the Entrusted Entity for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), invites Tenders for the development of a statistical framework for event attribution. ECMWF intends to award a single Framework Agreement for a period of maximum 24 months, which shall be implemented via a single multi-annual Service Contract expected to commence in Q4 2026.

C3S2_452 Development of a statistical framework for event attribution

The main objective of this Invitation to Tender (ITT) is to develop a statistical, e.g. Bayesian, framework for event attribution to support the evolution of C3S’s operational extreme events monitoring and attribution activities. C3S aims to: (a) Develop a statistical framework for event attribution that integrates climate model output, observations, physical drivers, multi-model ensembles, and prior knowledge, and produces posterior probability distributions. (b) Deliver a methodology with accompanying software or analytical tools that generate probabilistic attribution assessments, including posterior distributions of event likelihood, intensity, and uncertainty. (c) Design the framework to be user-friendly and computationally efficient, supporting future practical application within C3S operational services and enabling climate services, adaptation planning, and risk management.